Xu Dongshi from Galaxy Securities of China: expect high export growth in the second half of the year, with policy support and continued economic transformation.

On June 24th, China Galaxy Securities held its annual mid-year strategy report meeting in Shanghai. China Galaxy Securities' chief macro analyst, Xu Dongshi, gave a macroeconomic outlook for the second half of the year. Xu Dongshi stated that he predicts the domestic GDP growth rate to be 4.7% in 2026, in line with the annual target; exports will see high growth, manufacturing and infrastructure investment will support the economy; under the benchmark scenario, it is expected that CPI will increase by 1.3% year-on-year, and PPI will increase by 3.1% year-on-year. In terms of major asset classes, Xu Dongshi believes that inflation will differentiate profits, and August will be the turning point for the year. Equity market profits will concentrate in the mid-to-upper stream, with the main themes being AI outperforming non-AI, external demand outperforming internal demand, and essential products outperforming optional products. In the bond market, it is expected that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate in the range of 1.65% to 1.9%.