CITIC Construction Investment: In terms of AIDC power generation equipment, we firmly believe in the good prospects of domestic gas turbine engines going global.
CITIC Securities research report stated that in the field of AIDC power generation equipment, it firmly believes in the potential of domestically produced gas turbines going global. Credit Suisse issued a report predicting that global gas turbine orders will peak in 2026, with a decline starting in 2027. In addition, the advancement of supplementary solutions such as SOFC and fuel cells may lead to oversupply after 2030. CITIC Securities believes that expanding production is not as easy as imagined, and supply may not necessarily grow as expected. Predictions for the supply side cannot be simply extrapolated linearly, as expanding an industry from planning to stable delivery capacity requires time, and there are significant differences in delivery capacity among different manufacturers, models, and regions. Constraints on heavy gas turbine delivery come from various factors such as turbine heads, high-temperature core components, long-cycle forgings, supply chain support, complete integration, and on-site engineering. Domestic gas turbines themselves are an important supplementary route to fill gaps, equivalent to new routes such as SOFC + engines: overseas discussions focus on faster delivery technology routes for SOFC, engines, and so on. On one hand, some routes are still in the early stages of adoption and there is still much uncertainty. On the other hand, domestically produced gas turbines themselves serve as an important supplement with short delivery times. In the worst-case scenario, if global gas turbine orders decline, domestic gas turbine orders will not. We can only see that the industry still maintains high prosperity, domestic gas turbine orders are still growing, delivery cycles are still long, and effective supply is still tight.
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