Galaxy Securities: After the storm subsides, the price of gold is expected to return to an upward trend.

The research report from China Galaxy Securities stated that in the first half of 2026, the oil prices rose due to conflicts in the Middle East, intensifying inflation expectations. This led the market to shift from expecting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve to expecting a rate hike within the year, combined with liquidity tightening, putting pressure on gold prices after a spike. The current market has already priced in a gold price hike for the second half of the year, with expectations of a single rate hike by the Federal Reserve. If the tensions in the Middle East and the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz ease in the second half of the year, causing oil prices and inflation to decrease, the market's expectations of marginal monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve may increase, potentially driving gold prices back up. The fermentation of global order and the credit issues of US debt, as well as the substantial progress towards de-dollarization in the global credit currency system, will drive global central banks, investment institutions, and individual households to increase their purchases of gold and gold assets. This long-term logic of rising gold prices will continue, supporting the medium to long-term upward trend of gold prices and the valuation of the gold sector in the A-share market.