Lates News

CITIC Securities research report stated that the ECB's 25bps rate hike in June as scheduled lowered growth forecasts for the next two years and raised inflation forecasts for the next two years. Lagarde said the decision to raise interest rates this time was unanimously approved by the voting committee, and the necessity of raising interest rates has not yet been discussed neutral interest rates are not expected. It is expected that the inflation rate will return to target in the second half of 2027, providing limited forward guidance on future policy paths. The derivatives market is currently pricing in expectations of at least one more rate hike by the ECB this year, but we believe the drawbacks of another rate hike by the ECB outweigh the benefits. It is expected that the ECB will pause its rate hikes, with limited room for further appreciation of the euro and support for the US dollar index.