CITIC Securities May data forecast: Export growth rate may remain at a high level.

CITIC Securities research report indicates that in May of this year, the economy is expected to show structural differentiation characteristics of "further widening of the PPI-CPI scissor difference" and "external demand significantly stronger than domestic demand". PPI is expected to further increase year-on-year, driving a significant widening of the PPI-CPI scissor difference, with investment and retail sales growth on the demand side likely to be low, while foreign trade remains strong. On the production side, high-frequency data for May shows that industrial production is lower than expected, and the industrial value-added growth rate in May may still be low. In terms of demand, the recent progress of special bond issuances has significantly slowed down, and indicators such as the starting rate of petroleum asphalt and the PMI in the construction industry in May have deviated. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in May will continue to decline. Taking into account the year-on-year difference in subsidy fund utilization and the recent trend of gold prices, it is expected that retail sales growth in May will be low. Recent high-frequency data in the export chain continues to show strong performance, combined with a lower base in the same period last year, we believe that the export growth rate in May may remain at a high level. In terms of prices, it is expected that the month-on-month reading of PPI in May will slightly decrease from April but will still remain positive, with PPI year-on-year likely to be around 3.8%, further widening the PPI-CPI scissor difference. In terms of financial data, it is expected that the growth rate of social financing in May will be 7.6%, with a higher proportion of bill discounting in loans.