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Morgan Stanley stated on Wednesday that due to stubborn inflation and resilient economic performance in the United States, the bank has abandoned its previous forecast of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 and now expects rate cuts to begin next year. In the report, Morgan Stanley noted that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and recent economic data indicates strong growth and a robust labor market, reducing the urgency for further policy easing. The bank stated, "The threshold for rate cuts has been raised and the Fed appears ready to continue waiting." Policymakers may adopt a cautious attitude when evaluating the lagging effects of previous tightening policies and the sustainability of recent downward trends in inflation. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to implement rate cuts in January and March next year as inflation pressures diminish more noticeably and as economic growth slows towards trend levels.
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