Economists: The Fed will cut interest rates three times this year. This year is a repeat of last year.

Although the market has already ruled out any possibility of a rate cut this year, Luke Tilley, Chief Economist at Wilmington Trust, still believes there will be three rate cuts this year, possibly starting in July, as he believes rising energy prices will damage consumer spending and restrain growth. "If there isn't strong enough growth or strong enough consumer spending, then you can't maintain inflation, because consumers will reduce their spending," Tilley said. "They will cut back on spending. Businesses will see this. They will lay off workers, but they will also stop raising prices to try to protect market share, and you will see inflation slow down." He added, "All the supply factors driving prices up are there, but there are none of the demand factors." He said the Federal Reserve's story this year is a repeat of the previous year. A year ago, Tilley indicated that tariffs would harm growth, and the Federal Reserve would eventually cut rates at the end of the year. The Fed remained on hold all summer last year, then cut rates three times in the fall. He expects a similar scenario this year, just with rising oil prices as the catalyst. "You can substitute 'oil' for 'tariffs'," Tilley said.