CITIC Construction Investment: The disturbance in Hormuz is not over yet, and the logic of the upward trend in oil transportation is still progressing.

The CITIC Securities research report pointed out that the fluctuations in the situation in the Strait of Hormuz indicate that the impact of this round of events on the oil transportation market is still evolving according to a three-stage logic. After a brief opening on April 17th, Iran closed the strait again on April 18th, indicating that the situation is still unstable. Regardless of how the US-Iranian game develops in the future, the current market is still in the process of gradually transmitting the impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on oil transportation fundamentals. Oil shipping prices evolve in three stages: during the conflict period, prices rise, ship allocation lengthens shipping distance and pushes up prices, and after the unblocking, the rush for oil or a rise in prices for over 2 months. The current third stage, i.e. the inevitable global scramble for oil after the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked, will also inevitably transmit to the oil tanker transportation market.