Market rumors of "unexpected allocation of urea export quotas" are false. It is difficult to loosen export restrictions at the current time.

On the 21st, urea futures saw a significant increase in trading volume, with the main 2609 contract closing at 1996 yuan/ton, up 3.63%. Daily trading volume exceeded 110,000 contracts, with the highest price reaching 2029 yuan/ton at one point, hitting a new high since August 24, 24 years. It is reported that there are rumors in the market about unexpectedly reducing export quotas for urea, causing strong bullish sentiment in various futures contracts amid huge price discrepancies between domestic and international markets. This has led to a sharp increase in urea prices, with the current absolute low inventory and tight spot market situation making the price surge even more fierce. It has been confirmed that the rumor about export quotas being reduced is false, and current urea inventory is at historically low levels. Domestic companies are holding onto spot sales tightly, facing strong pressure to maintain supply, making it difficult to open up exports at this time. While low inventory and industrial demand provide support for prices, they may not be sufficient to drive a significant short-term price increase. Urea prices may still have a strong trend in the future, but caution is needed as expectations ease to avoid a significant market correction.