The biggest beneficiary of the U.S. tariff refund: Walmart may receive over $10 billion in tariff refunds.

The US government has officially started the tariff refund process, but there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding whether companies can successfully receive the money. First, it is important to note that the tariff refunds are not automatically issued. Companies must prepare their own materials, including import records and proof of tariff payment, for calculating the amount to be refunded. Analysis suggests that this process is particularly challenging for small and medium-sized enterprises. Due to the abundance of materials and complexity of the process, some companies with limited resources may not be able to complete the application, resulting in missing out on the refunds they should have received. Secondly, the tax refund process is being carried out in stages, with the first round covering only certain tariff categories. The system will only process complete customs clearance records that have not been settled, or those that have been settled within the past 80 days. If the refunds are successfully delivered, who will be the biggest beneficiaries? Wall Street predicts that large retailers will be the main winners. According to a report released by Citigroup Research, it is estimated that Walmart will receive approximately $10.2 billion in refunds, Target will receive around $2.2 billion, and Nike $1 billion. Companies such as Costco, Gap, and Macy's may also receive hundreds of millions of dollars in refunds. Analysts point out that these refunds may not immediately reflect in the companies' performance indicators in the short term, but in the upcoming quarters, they are expected to provide a one-time boost to the companies' balance sheets.