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Bank of Canada's first-quarter business outlook and consumer expectations survey: households expect that the Iran war will weaken the economy and push up prices. Some companies say they are unable to pass on input costs due to weak demand. The survey shows that the war has prompted significant changes in business prospects. Employees working in artificial intelligence-related jobs are more concerned about job losses. The survey covers approximately 100 companies. Most of the survey work was completed before the outbreak of the Iran war, and the results show a slight improvement in market confidence compared to the fourth quarter. Most farmers have already stocked up on the fertilizers they need for this planting season, so the long-term trend in prices will depend on how long the war lasts. 11% of companies expect inflation rates to exceed 3% in the next two years, down from 16% in the fourth quarter of last year. 26% of companies reported actual declines in sales in the past 12 months, down from 33% in the fourth quarter of last year. 9% of companies expect Canada to enter a recession within the next year, down from 22% in the fourth quarter of last year. 55.7% of Canadian respondents expect a recession in the next 12 months, down from 58.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. Respondents' expectations for inflation rates in the next five years have dropped from 3.09% in the fourth quarter of last year to 3.02%. About 85% of households expect the Iran war to damage the economy and raise prices. Companies expect U.S. tariffs to increase after the signing of the USMCA agreement renegotiation.