Guangda Futures: Expectations of Anti-"Involution" Revival, Polysilicon Hits Daily Limit Up

From a fundamental perspective, the price of polycrystalline silicon P-type remains stable at 31,000 yuan per ton, while N-type has been lowered by 500 yuan per ton to 35,000 yuan per ton. Traders are eager to sell due to tight funds, and the industry's price reduction and promotion strategy is starting to spread, with downstream buyers continuing to press prices up, leading to only a small amount of demand-driven purchases. There have been a few new orders for silicon wafers, but no significant improvement in scale has been seen. In terms of exports, after the cancellation of export tax rebates, domestic companies are actively raising overseas prices, adding to the pressure on end demand. Prices at various levels of the industry chain have fallen below mainstream cash costs, leading silicon material factories to expand production cuts and jointly avoid price dumping behavior. Short-term spot prices are further constrained, with futures markets experiencing significant fluctuations due to emotions, making it difficult for a trend reversal. It is advised to continue to pay attention to upcoming industry meetings and policy announcements to see if there are any signals of improvement in the current high inventories and weak demand contradictions, as well as to monitor the situation of spot price increases.