Industry insiders: The increase in lithium carbonate prices is a reflection of supply-side disturbances and resonating improvements in demand.
Industry insiders believe that the current rise in lithium carbonate prices is a result of supply-side disruptions and positive resonance on the demand side. Liu Qiyue, an analyst at Industrial Futures, said that the current upward trend in lithium carbonate prices is mainly driven by market expectations of reduced supply and increased demand at the fundamental level. On the supply side, the lifting of the export ban on lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe has occurred. Since April 14th, companies such as Ya Hua Group, China Mineral Resources, and Shengxin Lithium Energy have disclosed on investor interaction platforms that they have obtained export permits for Zimbabwean lithium concentrate, valid for six months. "Despite the approved quota being equivalent to the production capacity of the relevant companies' mines, the companies are still going through the process of resuming exports," explained Liu Qiyue. Zimbabwean lithium concentrate accounts for 10% of global lithium salt supply and is the second largest source of lithium ore imports in China. The export ban has been in place for nearly two months, and the delayed supply is now an undeniable fact, bringing about expectations of supply contraction in the market. Chen Jing, an analyst at Galaxy Futures, stated that there are expectations for a contraction in lithium ore supply in the next two months, leading to an overall tight supply and demand situation in the lithium carbonate market. "Even with quotas in hand, companies still need to wait for the issuance of export permits, and the accumulated lithium ore cannot be shipped all at once. It is estimated that a large amount of shipments will need to wait until after July," said Chen Jing. Currently, the market is concerned about a tightening of lithium ore supply in May and June, and preparations for lithium ore storage have already begun. Specifically, lithium concentrate inventories at ports are decreasing, and spodumene processing fees are declining, both reflecting a tight circulation of lithium ore.
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