Shenwan Hongyuan: The first quarter sees a recovery in consumer spending in commercial retail, and e-commerce retail is expected to see profit recovery.

Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that in January and February 2026, China's macro consumption growth rate reversed, with online and Spring Festival-related categories experiencing stronger-than-expected growth. The overall trend in 2026 is expected to be positive, with high-quality consumer brands and retail targets with positive adjustments likely to outperform. It is recommended to focus on e-commerce sectors that strengthen AI capabilities, e-commerce sectors that quickly repair profits, high-quality gold and jewelry brands with leading product strength driven by gold prices, trade service providers actively promoting digital reform, and new retail sectors pushing for store optimization and operational efficiency upgrades.