Polymarket's Iran betting contract triggers new disputes and insider trading probe.

Bets on the US-Iran ceasefire have brought in over $170 million in trading volume for the prediction market platform Polymarket, sparking doubts about whether bettors are trading on insider information. A series of well-timed bets related to Iran made by newly created anonymous accounts on Polymarket have generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits, prompting analysts to investigate signs of insider activity in the trades. Due to ongoing debates among users about the definition of "ceasefire," payouts for some Middle East-related bets have been frozen, leaving traders unable to withdraw funds. Disputes over the definition of "ceasefire" have resulted in frozen payouts for some Middle East-related bets, exposing the challenges in the growth of the prediction market industry and the difficulties it faces in clear settlement of contracts.