CICC: Short-term allocation value of gold is relatively better than other non-cash assets

Zhongjin pointed out that in the coming months, inflation in major global economies may rise significantly, growth faces downside risks, and global assets may face new challenges. Compared to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, current global supply chain pressures are lower, economic demand is weaker, and inflation levels are lower, so it is predicted that this round of stagflation shock will mainly be temporary disturbances, with inflation peaks significantly lower than in 2022, and global asset performance will not be as bad as in 2022. According to calculations based on oil futures contracts, the peak of inflation in the United States in this round will occur around June, close to 4%. Zhongjin predicts that US inflation will fall back in the second half of the year, combined with growth pressures and financial risks, and the Federal Reserve may continue to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. In the medium term, the possibility of a return to loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected, which will provide new support for the performance of stocks, bonds, gold, and other assets, especially optimistic about the long-term performance of Chinese stocks. In the short term, the market faces uncertainty and it is recommended to maintain a certain cash position. From the perspective of winning rate, the short-term allocation value of gold is relatively better than other non-cash assets.