Energy scarcity boosts inflation, and the momentum of the US housing market's recovery is being hampered.

Last autumn to winter, polls showed that the American people's worries about the cost of living are increasing, and they are pointing fingers at the Republican Party. The war has also exposed the limitations of Trump's efforts to protect the U.S. economy from global shocks by bringing back manufacturing, signing trade agreements, and expanding domestic energy production. For example, due to the destruction of energy infrastructure in the Middle East, global gasoline prices are expected to take several months to recover, and the situation may deteriorate further before improving. Rory Johnston, an oil analyst who writes the commodity newsletter "Commodity Observations," said that global energy supplies are just beginning to show the pressure of actual fuel shortages. He stated that some regions in Asia have already encouraged people to work from home, and some parts of Europe have begun to enforce fuel rationing. According to data from the American Automobile Association, diesel prices for heavy machinery and trucks are nearing historic highs. These effects are already evident in the U.S. real estate market, with inflationary pressures from the war causing the improvements in housing affordability achieved over the past few months to be wasted. Before the war, mortgage rates fell below 6%, attracting buyers to enter the market, with prospects for the spring housing market looking good. However, within just four weeks, rates have rebounded to 6.4%. Lisa Stevenson, chief economist at a U.S. multiple listing service agency, said, "By the end of 2025, we finally breathed a sigh of relief and were optimistic about the 2026 real estate market. When rates fell below 6% in February, it was even considered extremely optimistic." Stevenson predicts that if the war ends in the next few weeks, the spring home buying season will be delayed.