Galaxy Securities: We still have a positive outlook on the technology sector in the medium to long term, driven by industry growth and the upward trend in cyclical sectors.
Galaxy Securities stated that, from the external environment perspective, with high uncertainty in conflicts and trends not yet clear, global equity markets are expected to remain in a high volatility environment, with A-shares potentially showing a rotational feature of fluctuations. The change in trend of oil prices will continue to be a key variable affecting the recent market structure. The rise in oil prices will push up global inflation expectations, delay in interest rate cuts will lead to a marginal tightening of global liquidity, which will strengthen the trading logic of energy substitution sectors and defensive sectors, while partially suppressing the performance of aggressive sectors such as technology growth; and if oil prices fluctuate downward under the expectation of easing conflict in the future, it will be conducive to the repair of the growth stock market. From the internal environment perspective, the core logic of policy support, capital inflow, and the re-evaluation of Chinese assets remains unchanged, and external conflicts have not shaken the long-term bull market foundation of A-shares. At the same time, in April, listed companies' performance will enter a concentrated disclosure period, and market clues will gradually shift towards fundamental validation, with sectors with high earnings certainty and continuous improvement in business climate becoming the core focus of capital. In terms of allocation opportunities, focus on 1, the trend of US-Iran conflicts driving the strength of energy and alternative demand, focus on coal, coal chemical, new energy, shipping ports, oil and gas, etc.; focus on the valuation repair space of the non-ferrous metals sector. Focus on 2, defensive assets temporarily dominant, focus on finance, utilities, transportation, etc. Focus on 3, the logic of technological innovation, autonomy and industrial trend certainty, focus on power equipment, energy storage, storage, semiconductors, computing power, communication equipment, etc. In the consumer sector, focus on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, food and beverages, home appliances, and other directions. In the long term, we continue to be optimistic about the dual main lines of the technology sector driven by industries and the price increase clues of cyclical sectors.
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