Strong U.S. employment data leads Citigroup to delay expectations for Fed interest rate cuts.
Citigroup postponed its expectation for the timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to unexpectedly strong US job growth and continued inflation risks. According to a recent report released by the Wall Street brokerage, Citigroup currently expects the Fed to cut rates by a total of 75 basis points in September, October, and December, rather than the previously expected June, July, and September. Citigroup stated, "We still believe that signs of weakness in the labor market will lead to rate cuts later this year. However, the pace of upcoming data releases suggests that the timing of rate cuts will be later than our previous expectations." With the end of the healthcare worker strike and rising temperatures, US job growth in March exceeded expectations; however, the ongoing conflict with Iran, without a clear sign of resolution, is posing increasing downward risks to the labor market. Citigroup said that weak hiring will push up the unemployment rate in the summer, a situation similar to the past few years.
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