Economists: US CPI may surge by 1% in March, making it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates this year.

Economists say that the sudden increase in gasoline prices felt by American consumers will be fully reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. It is forecasted that the US CPI will rise by 1% month-on-month in March, the largest single-month increase since 2022; core CPI may rise by 0.3% month-on-month. Prior to the release of CPI data, the Fed's favored inflation gauge will provide information on pre-war price pressures. Economists predict that the core PCE price index may rise for the third consecutive month in February by 0.4%, indicating that the process of inflation returning to a more moderate level has stalled even before the conflict erupts. Combined with signs of stabilization in the US labor market, persistent price pressures, and new inflation risks brought by the Middle East conflict, this helps explain why the Fed may have difficulty lowering interest rates this year.