Lates News

EY-Parthenon senior economist Lydia Boussour states that despite the strong rebound in U.S. March employment data, the labor market remains fragile. She believes that in a policy environment full of uncertainty, companies are becoming more cautious in their hiring intentions, cooling down their willingness to recruit. Companies are increasingly inclined to protect profit margins by improving productivity rather than expanding employment. "Looking ahead, we expect the labor market to be basically frozen by 2026, characterized by selective hiring, limited wage growth, and strategic personnel adjustments in a context of historical tightness in labor supply," Boussour predicts that job growth will be slightly below the break-even level, and the unemployment rate will gradually rise to about 4.7%. She adds, "Given that the conflicts in the Middle East are still ongoing, the downside risks dominate, with a 40% probability of an economic recession."