Expert: Despite a strong performance in March, the labor market may be "basically frozen" by 2026.

Lydia Boussour, senior economist at Nomura-BOCH Research, said that despite the strong rebound in employment in March, the labor market remains fragile. She believes that in a turbulent policy environment, companies are becoming more cautious, recruitment intentions are cooling down, and companies are increasingly inclined to protect profit margins and rely on productivity improvement rather than expanding their staff. She said in a report: "Looking ahead, we expect the labor market in 2026 to be basically frozen, characterized by selective recruitment, restrained wage growth, and strategic adjustments to employee numbers as labor supply continues to be historically tight." Boussour predicts that job growth will be slightly below the breakeven point and the unemployment rate will gradually rise to 4.7%. She added: "Given the continued conflict in the Middle East, the risk is skewed to the downside, with a 40% probability of an economic recession."