J.P. Morgan: Close out long positions in two-year U.S. Treasuries due to employment data risks.

J.P. Morgan advises investors to close out long positions on two-year U.S. government bonds for profits, and warns that stronger-than-expected employment data may limit the market's pricing space for loose Fed policies. Strategists, including Jay Barry, wrote in the report that if the bank's forecast for an additional 75,000 jobs in nonfarm employment in March is accurate, the market may lower its expectations for a Fed rate cut in the short term. Note: The market generally expects an increase of 65,000 people. The pricing in the currency market is basically in line with J.P. Morgan's view, that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged for the whole of 2026. However, the bank believes there are still risks: if oil prices rise to $125 or higher, it could trigger "inherent asymmetry in central bank policy response functions"; if the oil shock worsens, the Fed may shift to a dovish stance.