Redemption wave hits 2 trillion USD private lending market, industry remains vigilant about cross-border risk transmission.

The private credit products in the United States, once seen as a "weapon for increasing income" by international giants, are now facing unprecedented pressure tests. Since 2026, top institutions such as Blackstone, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Oaktree Capital, etc. have successively reached redemption limits for their private credit products, revealing contradictions in the mismatch between the capital side and the asset side. According to the views of multiple institutional personnel, the pressure on the U.S. private credit market in 2026 mainly comes from two aspects. The first major pressure comes from artificial intelligence disrupting the business models of software companies. The second major pressure is the increase in PIK ratios, becoming a hidden danger behind the paper income. The macro chief analyst of Industrial Securities, Duan Chao's team, believes that the probability of the evolution of risks in the U.S. private credit into a systemic financial crisis is relatively low. Zhang Xia, chief strategy analyst of CMB Securities, reminds that in the future, attention should be paid to four aspects: whether the redemption pressure will continue to expand, the mutual transmission of risks between AI bubbles and private credit, the impact of high oil prices on the Fed's policy shift and interest rate rise risks, and the penetration of private credit into the banking system.