United Nations agency: "blockage" in the Strait of Hormuz intensifies global economic pressures

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development released an assessment report on the 1st, pointing out that the Strait of Hormuz is currently still effectively blocked, exacerbating global economic pressures. The report shows that as a key channel for global energy trade, shipping activities in the Strait of Hormuz have nearly come to a standstill, with daily vessel traffic dropping from about 130 ships in February to only 6 ships in March, a decrease of approximately 95%. UNCTAD pointed out that the "blockage" of the channel has impacted much of the global oil and natural gas supply, directly affecting production, trade, and consumption, and affecting transport systems such as maritime routes, air freight, and port logistics. If the "blockage" continues or worsens, and energy infrastructure is damaged, it could lead to long-term high energy prices, resulting in sustained inflationary pressures. Regions with high dependence on Middle Eastern energy, such as South Asia and Europe, will face greater risks. The report predicts that under the premise that the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further, global commodity trade growth will slow from about 4.7% in 2025 to 1.5% to 2.5% in 2026, and global economic growth will decrease from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.6%. The report points out that conflict leads to increased financial pressures, with developing countries being the most affected. As investors withdraw assets, some developing countries may face the dilemma of currency devaluation and rising borrowing costs. UNCTAD warned that disrupted energy flows, rising prices, slowing trade, and tightening financial conditions collectively constitute widespread global economic pressures. If the strait remains blocked, it could trigger a more widespread chain crisis that would have adverse effects on global development.