Huatai Securities: Control of the Hormuz Strait for more than a month has deepened the disruption of the Asian petrochemical supply chain.

Huatai Securities research report stated that the control of the Hormuz Strait for over a month has caused a disruption in oil supply, leading to a general decrease in the burden of the Asian petrochemical industry, with rising costs and tightening supply driving up product prices. The price difference between international diesel and aviation coal has soared, while the ethylene and propylene chains are hindered by insufficient demand, and the aromatic hydrocarbon chain is showing differentiation depending on the resilience of product demand. Different countries in Asia face varying risks due to differences in strategic oil reserves and alternative energy sources, with China having relatively low risk of supply chain disruption. Meanwhile, industry capital expenditure contraction and dual carbon control will promote supply pattern optimization, with the disruption expected to accelerate the optimization of the Asian petrochemical industry. With reduced uncertainty in the subsequent situation and the release of downstream inventory replenishment demands, it is expected to drive improvement in profitability of chemical products. In the long term, this event will accelerate China's strategic pace towards energy self-sufficiency and control, with the development process of modern coal chemical industry, green hydrogen, new energy, and other routes for substituting oil demand expected to accelerate, gradually reducing dependence on imported oil and gas.