Analysis: Can Trump make the United States leave NATO?

President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio both stated that they will reconsider the United States' membership in NATO. They accused NATO member countries of not providing assistance in the Iran war. How much room do they have to take this action? Formally withdrawing from or amending the treaty that established this military alliance in 1949 is extremely difficult. In 2023, the US Congress passed a law stipulating that "the President may not suspend, terminate, abolish, or withdraw the United States' status in the NATO treaty" unless the Senate agrees by a two-thirds majority or Congress passes a new bill. Before this law came into effect in 2023, Justice Department lawyers during President Trump's first term argued that the President has the exclusive power to unilaterally withdraw from international treaties. However, even though the treaty remains legally valid, NATO could still effectively disintegrate. The core strength of the alliance lies in its credibility as a deterrent: making potential adversaries believe that attacking any NATO member state would likely lead to war with all member countries, including the United States.