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The disruption of oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz and the disturbance in supply caused by the war in Iran have prompted analysts to raise their annual oil price forecasts by the largest margin on record in a Reuters survey. The survey conducted by Reuters in March showed that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 is expected to be $82.85 per barrel, which is about 30% higher than the $63.85 forecast in February before the outbreak of the conflict. This increase of $19 marks the largest upward revision in annual price forecasts. The average price of US crude oil in 2026 is expected to be $76.78 per barrel, compared to $60.38 in February. Both benchmarks have surged by about 60% since the conflict erupted on February 28, with Brent crude set to achieve a record monthly gain. Some analysts point out that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, oil prices could test the record high of $147 per barrel set in 2008. It is expected that supply will gradually recover in April and May, but even so, prices are likely to remain at elevated levels.
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