Barclays expects a strong buying interest for the US dollar at the end of the month and the end of the quarter.
Barclays stated that due to the significant decline in the US stock market, fund managers adjusting their global investment portfolios will have to buy US dollars at the end of March and the end of the first quarter. Barclays' end-of-month foreign exchange fund flow model shows strong buying pressure for the US dollar against all major currencies, with the end-of-month and end-of-quarter factors particularly favoring the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Scandinavian currencies. Fund managers adjusting their portfolios typically sell US dollars when US assets perform well to reallocate their assets back to target levels, and buy US dollars when US assets are underperforming. Barclays' Leonardo Crimella, Sheryl Dong, and Erick Martinez wrote in a report on Wednesday that the oil shock triggered by the Middle East conflict has made the US dollar the "primary beneficiary." "However, US stock market performance has lagged behind similar global markets, with significant declines since the beginning of the month."
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