Goldman Sachs has raised the possibility of a US economic recession to 30%.

Goldman Sachs stated that due to the surge in oil and natural gas prices, the probability of the US economy falling into recession within the next 12 months has risen to 30%, which is 5 percentage points higher than previously expected. The impact of energy price shocks, along with the tightening financial conditions caused by the conflict in the Middle East, and the gradual fading of the significant tax law passed by President Trump last summer, prompted Goldman Sachs' chief economist Hatzius to raise their baseline forecast for the year-end unemployment rate to 4.6%. Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December. The bank also predicts that US GDP growth in the second half of this year will be below trend levels, with an annualized growth rate expected to be between 1.25% and 1.75%. Due to the continued disruption in energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast earlier on Monday. The bank stated that this conflict will push up global inflation and lower global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, but in the worst case scenario, the impact on GDP could double or even triple.