High oil prices are "killing" the tax season that Trump has been promoting.

"It is expected that next spring will become the largest tax refund season in history." In December 2025, U.S. President Trump made a speech in an attempt to reassure the market and voters. However, as the military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran enter their fourth week, the industry is becoming increasingly pessimistic about whether the conflict can end in the short term, with additional tax refunds being eroded by high oil prices. According to the Associated Press, since taking office, Trump has been pushing for policies such as large-scale tax cuts in hopes of injecting a "shot in the arm" into the U.S. economy for 2026. However, since the military action initiated by the U.S. and Israel on February 28th, various spillover effects continue to expand, and international oil prices have been soaring. As of March 22nd, the average retail price of gasoline in the U.S. has risen by over $1 compared to February 28th, close to $4 per gallon. According to the latest data released by the American Bank Research Institute, gasoline expenditures in the second week of March increased by over 14% compared to the same period last year. Currently, there are no signs of easing in the U.S.-Iran conflict. On the evening of the 21st, Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, demanding that Iran "completely open the Strait of Hormuz without threats within 48 hours," or else they would destroy all types of power plants in Iran. This threat elicited a strong response from Iran. Neil Mayoni, director of the Stanford University Economic Policy Research Institute, speculated that by May of this year, the average retail price of gasoline in the U.S. may further rise to a peak of $4.36 per gallon, and then slowly fall back within the year. Based on this estimate, by 2026, the average gasoline expenditure per household in the U.S. will increase by $740, almost equal to the average estimated additional tax refund amount by the U.S. Tax Fund Foundation. The Oxford Economics Research Institute and other British consulting companies have also made similar assessments. Economists believe that even if the current conflict can end quickly, disrupted shipping and production will still take time to recover, and oil prices will remain high for some time, dragging down economic growth in the spring and throughout the year 2026. Some analysts have already lowered their expectations for U.S. economic growth. Economists Bernard Yaros and Michael Pierce from the Oxford Economics Research Institute predict that the U.S. economic growth rate in 2026 will be 1.9%, lower than the previous estimate of 2.5%. The expected rise in oil prices is not only expected to squeeze other consumption expenditures of American households, such as dining out, clothing and leisure, but also push up prices of other goods. In the "energy shock," lower-income families will face greater pressure, as they receive relatively less in tax refunds but have a higher proportion of gasoline expenditures. Alex Yak, an analyst at the left-leaning think tank Foundation for Cooperation, said, "Those with the least cushion will suffer the most from the energy shock, and there is no evidence that tax refunds can save them."