CITIC Securities: The medium to long-term logic of gold has not been disrupted.

The CITIC Securities research report stated that since August 2025, the long gold trading has become crowded, with the market overwhelmingly bullish on gold. Previously, CITIC Securities had given a price judgment: bullish in the short term, and even expected gold to reach an emotional peak in the first quarter of 2026. In the medium to short term, the logic is that the rise of black commodities will inevitably follow the convergence of the US Federal Reserve's currency, and the liquidity pricing of gold will be damaged. In the medium to long term, the reason is the weakening of the US dollar's status, with a particular focus on the weakening of technological support among the three pillars of the US dollar. In the long term, the logic is that the smoke of the great power game gradually clears, the internationalization of the renminbi significantly rises, which is a systemic pricing reconstruction for gold. Looking back at the trend of gold prices now, the rise of oil is due to the early arrival of the US-Iran war, rather than the impossible triangle of the US model endogenously, ultimately driven by fiscal factors. In addition, the trend of gold prices remains within our framework. How to view gold? After the impact of liquidity on gold prices subsides, gold can follow medium-term and long-term logic again.