Cai Xin Futures Peng Ningjun: Geopolitical conflicts disrupt the futures market, reshaping the pricing logic of the petrochemical sector to enhance supply chain security.

Recently, the futures market has been dominated by geopolitical conflicts, with chemical products leading the way, agricultural products following suit, and non-ferrous metals experiencing a moderate pullback. The market pricing logic has shifted from the traditional supply and demand fundamentals to a reassessment of supply chain security. Recently, Peng Ningjun, a research fellow at the Cai Xin Futures Research and Development Center, said in an interview with reporters that this round of market trends has gone through two stages: emotional expectations and actual supply disruptions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with maintenance reductions in refining facilities at home and abroad, has triggered a systemic supply shock in the chemical sector, with prices for multiple products hitting near three-year highs. Currently, bulls and bears are engaged in intense games surrounding filling supply gaps, negative feedback from the demand side, and the direction of geopolitical developments, with the market entering a stage of high volatility and differentiation. In the future, attention should be focused on commodities supported by supply and demand, beware of chasing after rising prices, and recognize that geopolitical factors have become as important as fundamentals in pricing.