Lates News

The Dallas Fed in the United States stated that if the Strait of Hormuz reopens after one quarter of closure, oil prices will fall to $68 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, and economic growth will increase by 2.2 percentage points. If the oil supply shortage continues for more than one quarter, a more complex situation will arise. Extending the closure time to two quarters will cause oil prices to rise further to $115 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, then fall to $76 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. The impact on real GDP growth will not turn positive until the fourth quarter of 2026. If shipping resumes after three quarters, oil prices will skyrocket to as high as $132 per barrel by the end of the year before falling again. The impact on growth will remain negative until the end of 2026.