CITIC Securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in April. After Powell takes up the chairmanship, the benchmark interest rate may be cut by 25bps once in the second half of the year.

CITIC Securities pointed out that the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at the March 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations. The dot plot this time shows that the central target interest rate for this year is 3.4%, consistent with December 2025, while raising the inflation forecast for this year, slightly raising the economic growth forecast, and keeping the unemployment rate forecast unchanged. Powell did not make any judgments on the situation in Iran and oil prices as scheduled. It is worth noting that his confidence in tariff inflation falling has further weakened since January. It is predicted that the Fed will not cut interest rates in April, and after Powell takes office as chairman, there will be a 25 basis point rate cut in the second half of the year.