Economists: The European Central Bank is expected to stay put, any changes would be premature.

Vanguard's economist Josefina Rodriguez said in a report released before the European Central Bank's policy decision on Thursday that it is still too early to suggest a change in policy stance. She stated, "Much will depend on the extent of the shocks and their ultimate duration" in reference to the Middle East crisis and the resulting surge in oil prices. She said Vanguard continues to expect policy to remain unchanged until the end of 2026, but "we have eliminated the previous downward bias in policy rate outlook risk." According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the money market expects the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged this week, but market pricing reflects expectations of a 44 basis point hike during the year.