Citigroup expects the Central Bank of Turkey to keep interest rates unchanged in April and cancel its loose bias.

Citigroup economists predict that the Central Bank of Turkey will stand pat in April; but if foreign exchange reserves continue to be under pressure and domestic depositor behavior changes, the central bank may directly tighten monetary policy. Citigroup economists lker Domac and Gltekin Isiklar wrote in a report on Thursday: "The overall tone of the policy statement is more cautious than before, indicating that the loose stance has been canceled." Citigroup expects Turkey's year-on-year inflation rate to slow from 30.9% in 2025 to 26% at the end of the year, but the risk balance clearly skews to the upside.