Lates News

Tastylive's global macro director Ilya Spivak stated that the next catalyst for the market is likely to come from inflation data itself. Economists forecast that the overall CPI in the US for February will show a year-on-year rate of 2.4% and the core CPI will be at 2.5%. However, a key risk can be vaguely seen beneath the surface of the data. One important driver of the January CPI data was the decrease in the contribution of energy prices to overall inflation. Replicating this scenario with oil prices already beginning to rise in early 2026 seems extremely difficult. Traders will eagerly watch whether core price growth (especially in the services sector) continues to slightly decline. This may spark hopes for inflation normalization after tensions in the Middle East have eased, thereby helping to soothe the market's anxious mood. If not, the fragile financial markets may see "safe-haven" volatility again as investors face the possibility of high interest rates persisting for a longer period of time. This would signal an unfavorable situation for stocks, bonds, and currencies other than the US dollar.