CITIC Securities: It is expected that the export growth rate in the first quarter of this year will reach around 17%.

CITIC Securities' research report stated that the export growth rate in the first two months of this year was significantly higher than expected and the previous value, mainly due to the strong resilience of non-US exports, the window period for "grabbing exports" brought about by adjustments in export tax rebate policies, and the impact of the low base number from the same period last year. In terms of product structure, the semiconductor industry chain and the automotive industry chain have played a significant role in driving exports, and labor-intensive products have shifted from a negative to a positive contribution to overall exports. The import growth rate in the first two months of this year also exceeded expectations by a large margin, mainly due to the recovery of the semiconductor industry driving an increase in demand for related imported goods, while the import quantity growth rate for most bulk categories has decreased. The decision by the US Supreme Court ruling that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal has eased external tariff pressures, coupled with the resilience of non-US exports. CITIC Securities predicts that China's exports will still show remarkable performance in 2026. Under neutral conditions, it is estimated that the export growth rate in the first quarter of this year can reach around 17%.