23%21.5 Daiwa Securities: Raise target price for HaiDiLao by 23% to 21.5 Hong Kong dollars, reiterate "buy" rating.

Morgan Stanley released a report titled "Turning Point Approaching, Growth Restarted", stating that Haidilao will no longer stand still, and will re-enter the growth track under macro favorable conditions and management drive, raising the target price by 23% from 17.5 Hong Kong dollars to 21.5 Hong Kong dollars. In the most optimistic scenario, the target price is 42 Hong Kong dollars, a potential increase of 1.4 times. In the most pessimistic scenario, the target price is 11 Hong Kong dollars, with a potential decrease of about 35%. Morgan Stanley stated that the overall risk-return is attractive, and a dividend yield of about 5% also provides further downside protection for the stock price, reiterating a "hold" rating. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the macro environment in mainland China is gradually improving, shifting from deflation to "low inflation", policy tailwinds supporting consumption, and competition environment easing. In addition, Haidilao's founder and chairman Zhang Yong has resumed the position of CEO, signaling a shift in the company's strategic focus towards faster execution pace and re-expansion. Morgan Stanley expects Haidilao's same-store sales growth to turn positive from this year, table turnover rate to rise, and store network expansion to restart. In a benchmark scenario, these two factors will drive the stock price to break through the range of 12 to 20 Hong Kong dollars over the past 3 years. It is expected that the average annual revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 will be about 10%, and the compounded annual growth rate of earnings per share will be about 27%.