Creative Futures: Overseas equipment burden reduced, export expectations increased, caustic soda futures prices closed limit up for the second consecutive trading day.

In terms of supply, the chlor-alkali plants in South Korea and Indonesia have reduced production, leading to a decrease in caustic soda supply of nearly 300,000 tons. Domestically, the prices of liquid chlorine and caustic soda in Shandong have recently risen, which has improved the overall profitability of the chlor-alkali industry and increased production levels. The planned maintenance of domestic chlor-alkali plants in March will reduce effective supply, strengthening market expectations for caustic soda destocking. In terms of demand, non-aluminum downstream industries are gradually resuming production after the holiday, leading to marginal improvement in liquid caustic soda demand. Additionally, the weak mineral prices in the aluminum oxide raw materials sector in March may lead to a slight increase in aluminum oxide production, as new capacity will be gradually coming online from March to June, increasing demand for raw materials. Overall, the reduction in overseas chlor-alkali plant capacity and caustic soda supply reduction may drive an increase in caustic soda exports from China. The commissioning of new downstream aluminum oxide plants domestically will benefit domestic demand. Caustic soda futures prices are expected to see a valuation recovery trend, with attention on the progress of new downstream capacity additions and changes in overseas plant capacity.