Vanguard Group expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates only once in 2026.

Although pricing in the futures market indicates a 60% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates twice, Vanguard Group predicts that they will only cut rates once. The company's economist, Kevin Kang, pointed out that factors such as a strong labor market, the stimulating effects of data center expansion, and Trump's "Great Big Beautiful Bill" all support this prediction.