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Dutch international bank interest rate strategists Padhraic Garvey and Michiel Tukker stated in a report that while risk aversion may temporarily push government bond yields lower, overall yields may rise in the second quarter due to a higher inflation narrative. Analysts pointed out that the reason government bond yields have risen this week is because investors are focusing on the inflationary pressures that may arise from the conflict in the Middle East. Dutch International Bank stated that they do not rule out the possibility of the US 10-year Treasury yield briefly falling below 4%. However, "Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect the US 10-year Treasury yield to rise back to around 4.3% level (which was sustained in January this year)." They added that this could mean that the German 10-year bond yield could also rise to around 2.9%.
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