Dutch international group: US attack on Iran will significantly affect the global economy.

The Dutch International Group released a report on the 2nd, stating that a US attack on Iran could not only reshape the regional landscape but also have a significant impact on the global economy. The summary of the report is as follows: Global trade is facing a supply shock at its worst point. Currently, the global trade system is already under pressure from the Trump administration's tariffs and the continued fragmentation of supply chains under the Ukraine crisis. The Strait of Hormuz is the most important chokepoint for global energy trade, and has now become a war zone. Even before it is completely blocked, the commercial impact is already evident: insurance companies canceling coverage, shipping insurance premiums skyrocketing, ships changing course or suspending passage. The chain reaction extends far beyond the energy sector: the closure of the Gulf airspace disrupts the Eurasian air routes; Houthi rebels in Yemen restart military operations in the Red Sea. If the conflict persists, the combination of high energy costs, logistical disruptions, and widespread confidence shocks will significantly drag down global trade volumes. For the United States, this is an attack that raises domestic prices. Although the US has limited trade exposure to the Strait of Hormuz, rising global oil prices will increase current living costs. US consumers are already under pressure, and gasoline prices are a highly sensitive issue in midterm elections. High oil prices will also complicate the future monetary policy path for the Federal Reserve. If the conflict is prolonged and uncertainty suppresses business investment and consumer confidence, growth prospects will deteriorate. The Eurozone will be the major economy most severely affected. Europe will suffer the most intense macroeconomic consequences. The Eurozone has just emerged from a long stagnation and shown signs of weak recovery. Now the region will face an energy shock in addition to the trade shock. Europe almost entirely depends on imported oil, and imports a large amount of liquefied natural gas. The soaring energy prices and supply disruptions could evoke memories of the energy price crisis from the end of 2021 to 2023. Asia's inflation and trade balances are also under pressure. Currently, the inflation levels of most Asian economies are overall under control and starting from a low point, seemingly able to digest the impact of rising oil prices. However, the impact ultimately depends on the magnitude and sustainability of the price increase. Asia's ability to cope with oil price volatility is weak, and some economies have a trade deficit due to high dependence on imports in the oil and gas trade. If high oil prices persist, the degree of impact will be determined by the three factors of dependence on Middle Eastern oil, trade balance, and inflation transmission effects.