J.P. Morgan: The protracted Middle East conflict poses risks to global growth and inflation.

Economists at JPMorgan wrote that the impact of the Iran conflict on the global economy depends on how long the hostile actions continue. They believe that the most likely economic channel for significant chain reactions is the rise in oil prices. If the conflict is short-lived, oil prices may quickly return to their previous trajectory, and the global economy may not be greatly affected. On the other hand, if oil prices remain high in the first half of this year, energy price shocks could lower the annualized global GDP growth rate by 0.6 percentage points and push up consumer inflation by over 1 percentage point in the first half of the year.