Analyst: Due to the vulnerability of oil production and transportation channels to attacks and disruptions, oil prices are likely to remain high.
Visnu Varathan, head of macroeconomic research at Mizuho Bank, said that according to Iran's warnings, regional attacks and unrest may become the norm. As oil production and transportation channels remain vulnerable to attacks and disruptions, oil prices are likely to stay at high levels. OPEC may face pressure to increase production in an attempt to offset supply shocks. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, a 10%-25% premium on oil prices is not unreasonable; and if it is blocked, there is a risk of a 50% premium on oil prices. Energy analysts from Eurasia Group also stated that oil prices are expected to rise significantly at market opening. If the conflict continues until Sunday, with Iran claiming to have closed the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted oil tanker shipments, oil prices may rise by an additional $5-$10 on top of the current baseline of $73.
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