CICC: The reconstruction of the international monetary order in 2026 remains the main theme of global assets.

According to a research report from CICC, the reconstruction of the international monetary order in 2026 will still be the main theme for global assets. 2025 is the year of accelerated reconstruction of the international monetary order, and this trend will continue in 2026. These trends support the continued bull market for Chinese stocks and gold, and are favorable for Chinese stocks to outperform U.S. stocks. In response to the current market divergences, CICC believes that this trend can also provide key evidence: first, regarding the pace of the bull market for Chinese stocks, the "new order" of monetary order reconstruction will not happen overnight, and the global funds' updated perception is a process that is currently still strengthening, favoring a slow bull market and the ongoing reevaluation of Chinese assets. Second, the impact of "Powell's shock" on the Fed's loosening, considering political constraints, economic constraints, and market constraints, the current Fed does not have the conditions for aggressive balance sheet reduction. In addition, Powell may push the Fed to cut interest rates more than market expectations, unable to reverse the declining credibility of the Fed and the safety of dollar assets. Third, the risk of an AI bubble in U.S. stocks. CICC believes that AI can effectively improve productivity, and without systematic leverage and debt risks, in the context of global fund reallocation, high-quality assets often have a higher tolerance for valuation, and overall performance is not poor. Asset allocation recommendations: Overweight Chinese stocks and gold, standard commodities, U.S. stocks, and U.S. bonds, and underweight Chinese government bonds.