Dutch Cooperation Bank: European natural gas prices are vulnerable to increases in oil prices and risks in the Gulf.

Dutch cooperative bank analysts stated that the geopolitical risks that drive up oil prices also bring upward pressure on natural gas prices, as some of Europe's long-term liquefied natural gas and pipeline supplies are linked to crude oil prices. The main triggering factors include: a substantial increase in the price of crude oil boosting the price of liquefied natural gas linked to oil, or attacks by Iran on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region - particularly Qatar's liquefied natural gas facilities. If there is a partial interruption in transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, it could push TTF prices to 50 euros per megawatt-hour, and if key infrastructure is completely paralyzed, it could push prices above 100 euros, although this extreme scenario is considered unlikely. If there is a smaller scale escalation in the Middle East, it could increase TTF prices by 5-10 euros per megawatt-hour. The Dutch cooperative bank's base scenario forecast remains that prices in the second quarter will be 26 euros per megawatt-hour, and for the full year of 2026 it will be 29 euros per megawatt-hour. However, any escalation affecting contracts linked to oil prices could push prices to over 40 euros in the spring and summer.