The countdown to the cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax rebate has begun, and industry consolidation is expected to accelerate.

According to the announcement of the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, starting from April 1st this year, the VAT export rebate for products such as photovoltaics will face cancellation. This move is seen as an important measure to curb the "internal and external competition" in the photovoltaic industry. Securities Times reporters found in interviews that in order to export more before the deadline mentioned above, industry manufacturers have generally increased their production capacity. However, this pre-export practice has made the industry more pessimistic about demand trends after the second quarter, and it is expected that the profits of leading companies will also be under pressure. The industry believes that this policy is more unfavorable for small and medium-sized enterprises that have relied on export rebates for price wars in the past, while leading companies have stronger resistance due to advantages such as technology, scale, brand, and channels. From the perspective of resolving trade friction risks, guiding industrial transformation and upgrading, and optimizing the global industrial capacity layout, canceling export rebates is like "the arrow is on the string and has to be shot". Interviewees generally believe that in the long run, the implementation of the policy will accelerate industry consolidation, and the industry concentration is expected to further increase. The industry competition focus will shift from "price war" to "technology war" and "brand war".