Goldman Sachs predicts that the economy will rebound in the first quarter after the government shutdown; moderate growth expected in 2026.

Goldman Sachs economists have released their first quarter annualized GDP growth rate estimate of 3.4%, an improvement from the fourth quarter; this estimate will be continuously updated throughout the quarter based on the latest data. However, much of this growth is attributed to the rebound in federal government activity, as many government agencies were closed for much of the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs estimates that the underlying growth trend in the first quarter appears to be around 2.1%. Goldman Sachs predicts that by the fourth quarter, the country's economy will likely expand by around 2.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, with reduced uncertainty in tariffs and favorable factors from tax reform providing some boost.